Miami Open Betting Preview: Iga Swiatek vs. Elina Svitolina
Saturday’s Miami Open clash between Reilly Opelka and Holger Rune is set to be a battle of contrasting styles—one built on sheer serving power, the other on all-around baseline brilliance. While Rune is the clear favorite on paper, Opelka’s monster serve could make this match much tighter than expected.
Big Serves, Few Breaks
This matchup is all about who can hold serve more consistently. Both players have dominant service games, but their return skills leave much to be desired:
Opelka holds serve 90.1% of the time but has a terrible 8.5% break rate, meaning he barely creates chances on return.
Rune holds at 79.7% and breaks at 21.3%, which is better than Opelka but still not elite.
According to TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations, Opelka’s serve quality ranks at an elite 9.12, while Rune’s is at 7.84. Meanwhile, both players struggle when returning—Rune has a 6.47 return rating, and Opelka’s sits at an abysmal 5.55.
Simply put: expect a lot of service holds and a good chance of tiebreaks.
Rune’s Baseline Edge vs. Opelka’s Serve-First Strategy
Opelka is a self-proclaimed “serve bot,” meaning his entire game revolves around landing bombs on serve and keeping points short. He’s not going to out-rally Rune, but if he hits his spots consistently, he can push this match into a dogfight.
Rune, on the other hand, is a much better all-around player and will dominate most extended rallies. His return game has improved, but it’s still far from elite. That means if Opelka stays sharp, Rune may have to wait for a lapse or force errors rather than generating clean breaks.
What to Expect & Betting Insights
Long sets with tiebreak potential—Opelka’s serve is too strong for Rune to consistently break.
Rune’s fitness and return improvement could be the difference, but he may have to grind this one out.
A 7-6, 6-4 Rune win is a reasonable prediction, but a three-set battle wouldn’t be surprising in Miami’s fast, server-friendly conditions.
If you’re betting, the over on total games or tiebreaks occurring in the match could be solid plays. This one has all the makings of a classic “big server vs. shot-maker” showdown.