Diminishing returns: Novak Djokovic’s famed service return game shows signs of cracking
Over the last two decades, Novak Djokovic has built the reputation of being the best returner tennis has ever seen. In moments where players might usually look down and out as their opponent serves for the match, the Serbian has managed to come up with momentum-shifting responses more frequently than anyone can remember.
The US Open semifinal in 2011, where he saved two match points against Roger Federer; the Australian Open final in 2012, where he came from a break down in the final set to beat Rafael Nadal in the longest match in Grand Slam history; and the summit clash at Wimbledon in 2019 where he again saved two match points against Federer are some of the various noteworthy instances where Djokovic has shown that he is never out of the contest even when he doesn’t have the serve.
However, since the beginning of 2024, Djokovic’s return game has seen a minor dip. He has won 33.7 per cent of first-serve return points in his career. In the last 52 weeks, it has dropped to 32.5 per cent. On hard courts, which is considered Djokovic’s preferred surface as he has clinched 14 of his 24 Grand Slam titles on it, it is just 29.7 per cent in the last year. In terms of second-serve return points, the respective percentages are 55.2 (career), 54.8 (last 52 weeks) and 56.7 (on hard courts in last 52 weeks).
During this period, Djokovic, who himself is 6’2”, has particularly struggled against taller players on the tour who serve big. The 6’3” Jannik Sinner (Australian Open semifinal and Shanghai Masters final in 2024), 6’5” Alexei Popyrin (US Open third round in 2024), 6’11” Reilly Opelka (Brisbane International quarterfinal this year), 6’5” Matteo Berrettini (Qatar Open first round this year) and most recently, 6’3” Botic van de Zandschulp in second round at Indian Wells, have all made life difficult for Djokovic. In fact, he didn’t even have a single break point against Sinner in Australia last year.
Djokovic has also found himself unable to be more consistent in crucial moments of the matches. He has converted 44.1 per cent breakpoints in his long career. Over the last 52 weeks, that stat is 41.5 per cent, while on hard courts during the same period, it is even worse at 37.7 per cent.
Paul Annacone, who has coached the likes of Federer, Pete Sampras and Sloane Stephens, and is also a well-known commentator and analyst, feels the slight dip in Djokovic’s form is due to the fact that he is not playing as frequently as he used to. “I have not really seen much difference (in Djokovic’s game). (He is) a little less consistent and the margins are so narrow that if that drops off, you are vulnerable. We haven’t seen that in the past from Novak too often, but now that he is playing less, it is a little more challenging to get in a match rhythm,” the 61-year-old Annacone told Sportstar.
Annacone also credited the other players for taking the game to Djokovic. “Players are getting better and he isn’t playing as often. So, his level, perhaps, can dip a little because he doesn’t have as much match play,” he said.
Recently, Djokovic has spoken a lot about focusing more on Majors and therefore, he has adjusted his schedule accordingly to keep himself fresh. Between 2021 and 2023, he played 62, 49 and 63 matches, respectively every season. It did work in his favour as he grabbed seven of the 10 Grand Slams he played in those three years.
But in March last year, he ended a very successful partnership with coach Goran Ivanisevic under whom he won nine Majors. Since the beginning of 2024, he has made only one Major final – last year’s Wimbledon where he lost to Carlos Alcaraz. During the same period, he has clinched only one title – the Paris Olympics gold medal after beating Alcaraz in two tiebreaks in the final.
“It is very challenging to balance a schedule for an icon like Novak. He shouldn’t play a full schedule but if he doesn’t win enough and doesn’t get enough matches, it is complicated. He is the most accomplished male player in history. I would be shocked if he doesn’t raise the level up again and will also be surprised if he is not in any of the finals of the remaining Majors this year,” said Annacone.
Djokovic turns 38 in May and the injuries to his knee and hamstring in the last year have shown that he is human after all. So, the slight dip in his return game may be a sign of things to come but at the moment, it still requires a very high level from his opponents to beat him and he may not be done just yet.